Roll Up the Rim: The Odds of Winning a Car vs Other Unlikely Events
Filed under: Bargains & Freebies, Food & Drink, Weird & Wonderful
Working from home, I'm generally not awash in the same cultural and marketing nuances that most people are subject to in their day-to-day lives. Maybe that's why the pervasiveness of Tim Horton's roll-up-the-rim contest was and is so striking to me: I left the house the other day, and traveled to another country, and still, there weren't many human interactions lasting longer than ten minutes, that didn't involve mention of those red paper cups, or what people had won (or not) in that contest.Maybe my family and friends drink more coffee than average, but I don't think so.
This is not a lecture about the cost of take-out coffee and how it adds up over the course of a year. Instead, I was curious: Just what are the odds that you might actually win one of those grand prizes, and how do those odds compare to other lottery or gaming contests?
Tim Hortons has done a pretty remarkable thing here. Not only are they 'the talk of the town,' in virtually every single town with a franchise, but despite the contest's size, people seem to believe in their chances of winning - the contest feels smaller than it actually is.
I definitely wasn't immune to its charms. I told my friend that I hoped to win the car, as I gnawed the paper flap into revealing its secrets. ('Please play again')
When I looked up the odds of winning that car, I was pretty taken aback. Unless it's a typo, you have a far better chance of winning the Cash For Life jackpot, than you do of winning the car, or one of the $5,000 prizes.
In Canada, the odds of winning one of the 38 cars on offer is one in 6.5 million. (In the U.S. those odds are a little narrower: one in six million.) Across North America, the odds you'll win one of the 100 prepaid cards worth $5,000 is one in 2.6 million.
By comparison, the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation says the odds of winning its Cash For Life jackpot is one in 2.7 million. The odds of winning the Lotto MAX grand prize is one in 28.6 million. Finally, the odds of winning the 6/49 jackpot is almost one in 14 million.
Millions and ba-jillions can be so difficult to grasp though. Want some real life examples?
The statistics we have are morbid, but death and injury are the numbers that seem to be updated most frequently, by sources that are actually named. (The chances you'll get hit by or killed by lightning seem to range from one in 135,000 to one in 10 million, depending on the online source you're willing to believe.)
The odds of certain things change from year-to-year too: Immediately following a tsunami, for example, the odds you'll be killed by a tsunami go down considerably, for a number of reasons. One of the big reasons is people are educated about the possibility, they're alert for the signs, and early warning systems are put in place in response to the threat. I've also read that the threat we'll all be killed by a meteorite has gone down over time as well, because humans are better equipped to respond to such a threat today than we were in the past.
So what are the odds?
Kate McCaffery is a freelance writer in Ontario. Visit mccaffery.ca/kate2.0/ for more information.
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I buy on average 2 cups a day and I have won 10 coffee and two donuts. A few years ago my husband won the bar b q and our neighbours won a bike. I even worked with a girl that I knew in high school that won a car. Not bad for something I'm going to buy anyway. My odds of winning the lottery are 0 since I don't buy tickets.
March 20 2013 at 8:50 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyIf over the course of the contest, a person buys 100 cups of coffee, then your chances of winning that prepaid credit card is actually 1 in 27 000, car is 1 in 65 000 and so forth. Given that such a person would have most likely bought that coffee regardless of the contest, this isn't that bad of a contest.
March 19 2013 at 4:42 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply@vonzee55..You point about major cities makes no sense because 70% of canadian population lives in 15 metro areas. So obviously bulk of the purchases is going to come from those places, now that translates into better odds. Also, if you look back at the olg website a bunch of winners are from non metro areas and smaller cities.
March 19 2013 at 4:34 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyMake sure your cup hasn't already been checked for a winner, employees at night have nothing else to do.
Black coffee is better at Md's
wow---ive won probably 25 x already no sh**tin ya--i buy 3 a day--to say your friends a heavy drinker and not won--i think u r just talk----8 yrs and nothing? hardly a truth there--but w/e lol i drink tea btw not shi^^y coffee lol
March 18 2013 at 6:58 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyI bought a Timmies coffee the other day........only because I had a migraine and really needed a coffee. I would usually go to McD's. ( better coffee ) I was shocked to win a free coffee. Gave it to a bus buddy on Saturday. By the time I went back it would be no good. Timmies really has a thing going there. You have a better chance of getting struck with lightning than winning something major. The coffee suck and the doughnuts suck. Not like when they first started. The doughnuts had to be the best.....now they are just small mass produced nothing special pieces of garbage. If you still think you are going to win anything big all the best and all the luck to you. Myself I'll make my coffee at home or go to McD's.
March 18 2013 at 5:49 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplySome times in the past I won a donough, but lately nothing absolutely nothing not even that. No matter how many coffees I drink.
March 18 2013 at 12:37 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyThe odds of winning nothing is greater then you know, cause businesses slash contests are just that. Those that win are in the trendy areas the in spots even the want ya in my neighbourhood places. You don't ever see an out of work mom that really needs that car to do whatever get to win those contests! It's just the same as the large provincial lotteries, they tell their computers where to pick the winning numbers and that is where they cet the" MOST CASH". That is why you will find that cities like Quebec(with the way they feel about the rest of Canada, do you thinks they want the rest of us to win the big money cash outs on the lotteries when they might want the cash to buy their way out of Canada. Of course while they are laughing at us for getting the money from the public to do it with), Ontario, and out west get most of the prizes on the gov lotteries, thus what the gov does the businesses do. Because they feel if the gov can do it that way then they can too, they all pick the popular places as they want to be seen and noticed and the bigger the place the more money they plan to get from new purchasers of their tickets. Because we all know that if the prizes went to some small out of the way place or to provinces wit too many old persons in it, then they wont get the millions to billions they are looking for from the public! The facts are: THEY WANT YOUR MONEY, and will do anything to get it; even if it means leaving you out of their winning places and still let you think you can win if only you keep using, purchasing or wanting what they PRETEND to offer you.
Some may say.. Ah they are cynical.. You bet and they made me that way!!
Have a friend who drinks more coffee than anyone. In the 8 years that I have known her, she has never won anything. Not even a free coffee, from Timmys!
March 17 2013 at 9:30 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Replyfrom Last 3 months mostly I buy the coffee everyday , never win nothing, beside plz play again, not even single win, from more then 70 coups of coffee
March 17 2013 at 7:56 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply
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