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Housing Affordability Worsening. When Should You Buy?

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Filed under: Bargains, Budgeting & Planning, House & Home, Loans, Real Estate


Forget the recession; one look at the housing market and it's like we never had one. House prices are on the rise and they're not going to get cheaper anytime soon as buyers pile in to take advantage of low interest rates.

A recent report by Royal Bank of Canada found that buying a house became slightly less affordable at the end of 2009 and that was entirely due to higher prices because the other things that affect affordability -- mortgage costs and personal income -- were better.

The overall slip in affordability wasn't huge, we're talking a 0.3% rise in the index that tracks the affordability of a standard two-storey home, but economists expect costs to get worse as the year unfolds.

So what should you do if you're planning on buying a home?
The good news for those who want to buy a house now is that affordability is still better than it was a year ago, but it is not expected to stay that way long because at present the demand to buy is higher than the desire to sell, which is why prices are climbing.

The reason demand is high is simple: people understandably want to take advantage of low mortgage rates before they start increasing again, something that economists think will happen in the second half of this year. RBC senior economist Robert Hogue says demand is likely high in Ontario and B.C. because many home buyers want to jump in before the HST is introduced on July 1, creating an increase in home-buying transaction costs.

Some buyers may also be trying to jump into the market before the Federal Government's mortgage changes take effect in April. The new measures require higher deposits, a move designed to prevent a U.S.-style sub-prime mortgage crisis, whereby people might struggle to repay their loans as interest rates inevitably rise.

This all means that house price growth may slow (not fall) in the second half of the year as the rush in demand eases, but affordability is not expected to get any better because by then interest rates should be on the rise.

"The anticipated and gradual rise in interest rates indicates that affordability is likely to gradually get worse as rates return to normal levels," says Hogue.

So if you are in the market for a new home, it looks like the sooner you buy the more affordable your purchase will be. However, if you do need to hold off, don't despair. Affordability is getting worse, but not at a crazy rate. Conditions should remain relatively affordable over the next year.

The survey shows that Vancouver remains Canada's least affordable city, followed by Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Calgary and Edmonton.

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