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10 Stocks Warren Buffett Would Never Buy

Filed under: Investing

warren buffettBy Morgan Housel
The Motley Fool

In the investing world, knowing what not to buy may be equally as important as knowing what to buy.

After around 70 years of investing, Warren Buffett has undoubtedly emerged as one of the great investors all of time, but also one of the pickiest. Unlike some money managers that jump in and out of investments at breakneck speeds, Buffett's portfolio at Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A ) (NYSE: BRK-B ) continues to exemplify the notion of buy and hold... forever.

Most Buffett fans, us here at the Fool included, love to play the game of trying to predict Buffett's next target for a big acquisition or investment. However, if we look at some companies that the Oracle of Omaha wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole, there may be some lessons learned.

1. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) If Buffett were to invest in Apple, such an investment would likely shatter the record for most tweets per second on Twitter and cause a CNBC commentator to simply explode. But rest assured, I do not believe Warren Buffett will make an investment in Apple. Despite the company's enormous pile of cash and track record of generating fat margins, Buffett views companies with a time horizon that can span well beyond 20 years. Although the iPhone-maker commands the best margins in the industry today, Buffett realizes the likelihood that the technology hardware landscape will change over the next several years is huge compared to a shift in the landscape of say, banking.

2. Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX ) One of the things Warren Buffett looks for in a company is a strong and visionary leader. And Netflix has that in CEO Reed Hastings. However, Buffett also values a company with a significant "competitive moat" and that spits off tons of cash. Netflix does not have that. Despite being the first mover in the space, and its recent effort to create original content, prices for outside content will continue to rise as more companies enter the streaming space. Although Netflix stopped reporting its "churn" rate, most estimate that this rate is fairly low -- as competition emerges, there's not much that will keep customers from fleeing to a different service.

Good News for Apple? Tablets Fast Gaining on Smartphones

Filed under: Investing, Shopping, Technology

As the smartphone market slows, tablets are becoming an increasingly popular way of consuming mobile data, according to the latest report by mobile advertising network Jumptap.

The company found that tablets accounted for 18% of all mobile traffic on its advertising network, which covers 134 million mobile customers in the US and 206 million worldwide, in 2012, which was a sharp increase from 7% in 2011. Of course, smartphones still represented a dominant 78% of the network's traffic, but the company projects that tablets will make up close to one-third of all traffic by the end of this year.


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Has Apple Fallen Out of Favour in the World of Product Placements?

Filed under: Investing, Technology, Television

By Sterling Wong
Minyanville

Last summer, during a protracted legal battle with bitter rival Samsung (PINK:SSNLF), the world learned a lot about how Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been able to enjoy free publicity over the years, thanks to carefully placed product placements in Hollywood movies.

According to testimony by Phil Schiller, Apple's global chief of marketing, the Cupertino, California-based company never pays for its products to be used by Hollywood stars in movies and television, but it does "have a person who helps provide products to people that want to do that."

"Apple won't pay to have their products featured, but they are more than willing to hand out an endless amount of computers, iPads, and iPhones," elaborated Gavin Polone, producer of HBO's Curb Your Enthusiasm, in a conversation with Daily Tech. "It's kind of a graft situation."

Whoever Apple hired to promote its merchandise for product placement usage must have received large bonuses because Apple has all but invaded the big screen in the past decade. According to a study by Brandchannel, Apple-branded products showed up in over one-third of all US box office-topping films between 2001 and 2011, which was more than what McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Pepsi (NYSE:PEP), and Sony VAIO (NYSE:SNE) could muster up. In 2011's Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol, Apple products got more than five minutes of screen time, which marketing firm Front Row Analytics calculated was worth more than $23 million.
The iPhone used in Mission:Impossible - Ghost Protocol (Source: cultofmac.com)

The free publicity Apple enjoys helps the company keep advertising costs down. Apple spends just $1 billion per year on advertising, much less than Samsung ($2.6 billion) or Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) ($1.6 billion). It also allows the company to reap the intangible benefits of being associated with the glamorous Hollywood film industry.

1 Simple Chart That Proves the PC is Dead

Filed under: Shopping, Technology

By Evan Niu, CFA
The Motley Fool

Stop me if you've heard this one before: the PC is dead. This has been a recurring debate in the tech world for years. Plenty of digital ink has been spilled right here on Fool.com trying to prove and disprove that notion. Investors would be surprised at how much has actually happened over the past three to four years.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has proclaimed that we're now entering the "Post-PC" era, but Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) thinks it's more like "PC-Plus." I'll show you one simple chart that proves the PC is dead.

Three for the price of one!
First, I have a little confession to make. I've misled you a tiny bit; there's actually more than one chart for us to go through, but don't worry, we'll get to it. I've compiled four years of quarterly historical data from IDC on the smartphone, tablet, and PC markets and created a handful of charts to make my case.

These are worldwide PC unit shipments over the past four years:

What's Apple Really Worth? Investor's Stress Test Offers an Answer

Filed under: Investing, Shopping, Technology

Apple Store - Eaton CentreBy Josh Wolonick
Minyanville

There's been a deficit of positive writing and reporting about Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in recent weeks. But that is changing. Yesterday, the Financial Times interviewed Legg Mason manager Bill Miller who said that Apple is worth 50% more than its current price. Moreover, he said that "Apple is much more like Nike (NYSE:NKE), a consumer brand with great loyalty," than it is a phone or device maker like Nokia (NYSE:NOK) or BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY). As news of the interview circulated yesterday morning, excitement rose, and by 10:30 a.m., the shares were up from $453 to $465 in a matter of minutes.

Here we see the psychology of Apple at play. In a two-part series for Institutional Investor, Vitaliy Katsenelson examines that psychology and argues that it was the predominant factor in the company's major stock drop-off last year. This psychology is what makes Apple difficult to own -- it drives the huge gains, and the big drops. Katsenelson, CIO at Investment Management Associates in Denver and occasional contributor to Minyanville, says Apple has built its reputation on black swans -- extremely rare and unpredictable events that have an enormous impact. The iPod, the iPhone, the iPad: These were black swans, "exceeding all rational expectation and revolutionizing, transforming and in some cases creating new categories of merchandise that had never existed before," he writes.

Best Sleek, Sexy Tablets and Phones That Aren't Apple

Filed under: Shopping, Technology

By Josh Wolonick
Minyanville

The iPhone is sexy. As a non-iPhone user, I've found its sleek and simple design compelling ever since my first lucky friend got one. The feel of it in my hand, on my ear, as I make a call from my girlfriend's iPhone after my BlackBerry has died. The iPad is just as beautiful a device, with its crystal-clear display and oh-so-responsive touch. When it came out, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) marketed it as a "Magical and Revolutionary Device at an Unbelievable Price" (seriously, they called it magical). And going way back, there's the iPod, the mp3 player that changed the game and, after the burst of brilliance that was Apple's iMacs, cemented Apple's comeback and eventual rise to one of the world's most valuable companies.

The problem is that these devices are expensive, and for a recent college graduate/writer/actor like myself, the prices are restrictive. The fact is that lots of people want iPhones and iPads, but not everyone can have one...yet (see my story from last week about people in China buying fake iPhone signatures for a popular IM service).

Thanks to Apple being the vanguard for sexy smartphones and tablets, other companies have followed suit, creating products that allow those of us with limited budgets to follow the trends whilst daydreaming about the "magical" original.

Here are a few quality budget options to let you keep up with Apple:

SLIDESHOW: Sexy Tablets and Phones That Aren't Apple

Lumia 920Google Nexus 7Google Nexus 10The PengPodAppleThe Cheap(er) iPhone

Spoiler Alert: Here's What Will Be Unveiled at CES and What Won't

Filed under: Shopping, Technology, Weird & Wonderful

CES 2013 By Carol Kopp
Minyanville.com

Why wear out shoe leather walking the endless and crowded corridors of the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, where 1.87 million square feet of space will be devoted to 3,000 exhibitors from around the world? Especially since there have been at least cryptic news leaks about some of the biggest announcements expected at the show, which runs all next week.

Here's the word so far:

An Early Look at CES 2013: What to Expect From Tech's Big Guns

Filed under: Technology

By Jonah Loeb
Minyanville


For those of us who like parties, champagne, and general bonhomie, the turn of a new year is a great occasion to have fun with friends. For those of us who like pushing buttons and having things go "beep" at us, there's a different reason to get excited after the ball drops: the Consumer Electronics Show is on its way.

When the CES kicks off in Las Vegas next week, some of the world's hottest tech companies will be hoping to wow attendees and press alike with their biggest, boldest, and most far-out innovations. Some of them may look like things that Q gives to James Bond, but some of them may end up changing the world. Here's what to expect from the big guns at the 2013 CES.

Are Google and Apple Preparing for the Death of Smartphones?

Filed under: Technology

By Josh Wolonick
Minyanville

If 2012 was the year that disc drives and compact discs became obsolete, the ubiquity of GPS services on smartphones made stand-alone GPS devices unnecessary, and small-screened smartphones were widely replaced by the large-screened Samsung Galaxy and slightly taller Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 5, what can we expect from 2013?


The evolution of technology proceeds ferociously fast, and this past year was no exception. With rumors on the Internet of Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) wearable eyeglasses, known now as Glass, and more recently, of an iWatch from Apple, the companies may be preparing wearable computer technology in anticipation of the death of the smartphone as we know it.

Apple Vs. Samsung and/or Google: Which of These Brands is 'Past Its Prime'

Filed under: Investing, Technology

smart phones and tabletsBy Carol Kopp
Minyanville


When did public perception of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) start morphing from "Greatest Company on Earth" to "Brand Past Its Prime?" At about the time that Samsung (PINK:SSNLF), founded in 1938, started looking like a hot young company.

Whatever the perceptions, the two are now locked in a race to the top of mobile technology sales for the all-important holiday season. A report just out from IDC says that Samsung and Apple are leading the competition for mobile technology so far in the holiday season. Samsung is first in market share, at 21.8%, but Apple is tops in value, at $34.1 billion in the third quarter. Both numbers are based on shipments, not sales.

Reuters dates the beginning of the change in perceptions of both companies to three months ago. Its report says that Samsung has begun to shed its reputation as a mere "fast follower" to become a serious innovator in consumer technology. Meanwhile, Apple "has failed to deliver on a truly seminal product in years - the oft-rumored Apple TV remains a well-honed rumor." In both cases, the report makes clear, it's all about analyst perception, but that's what counts.

This being the technology industry, the reversal of players in defensive and offensive roles took only three months, Reuters figures. In that period, Apple stock dropped about $105 billion, or 18%. Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930) doesn't trade on US exchanges, but in South Korea, it's up about 15% in the same period.
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