avery shenfeld posts

It turns out that Canada's economy is in much better shape than previously thought, causing economists to bring forward their predictions of an interest rate hike.

"The recovery in Canada is proceeding slightly faster than expected, and there is more evidence of the anticipated rebalancing of demand," Canada's central bank governor Mark Carney said in a statement Tuesday.

The Bank of Canada is predicted to keep interest rates on hold when it makes its January announcement on Tuesday.

However, the experts say rates will likely rise in the coming months as the central bank attempts to prevent a crippling rise in personal debt.

According to a Reuters poll, Canada's leading interest rate strategists all expect the benchmark interest rate to remain at 1 per cent this week, allowing the economy more time to adjust to the last rate hike in September at a time when the U.S. economy -- Canada's biggest trade partner -- is still struggling to create jobs and recover from recession.

The central bank last raised the benchmark interest rate in September following quarter point rises in June and July. Prior to that, the key interest rate had sat at a record low 0.25 per cent for 13 months to ease the impact of recession on the economy and encourage the flow of money through the almost stagnant financial system.

The Canadian dollar has kicked off 2011 in a position of strength. It is above parity with the U.S. dollar and trending at historically high levels against other major currencies such as the euro and the British pound.

At the end of its first week of trade for the new year the Canadian dollar was buying about US$1.01, 78 euro cents and 65 British pence -- all stronger than average levels. But what is driving this strength in the loonie?

Canada's economic strength compared with the rest of the world has attracted a lot of private investment in Canadian denominated assets. But Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC, says there is more to the high exchange rate than meets the eye. Mr Shenfeld says central banks around the world are also very interested in Canadian dollars in a bid to diversify their assets at a time when the U.S. dollar has lost purchasing power. This additional demand for the loonie may be overheating its value and crippling the Bank of Canada's ability to raise interest rates and curb rising consumer debt levels.